May Newsletter | Budget Reset, Rate Rises And A Cooling Market

May Newsletter | Budget Reset, Rate Rises And A Cooling Market.

A Federal Budget that reshapes negative gearing, a third RBA hike to 4.35%, and a property market splitting into two speeds. Here is what you actually need to know.

Autumn pathway with fallen leaves in an Australian park

May 2026 has been one of the most consequential months for Australian property owners in recent memory. The Federal Budget rewrote the playbook for investors, the RBA lifted the cash rate for the third time this year, and the property market kept splitting into two clear speeds.

The headline numbers: cash rate now 4.35% (up 0.25 points on 5 May), annual CPI at 4.6% in March, and national home values growing just 0.3% in April — the slowest pace in more than a year.

There is a lot to weigh up if you own property, are planning to buy, or run your own business. Here is how I would frame the three things that matter most.

Federal Budget

What The 2026-27 Budget Means For You

The Federal Budget was handed down on 12 May. Three changes stand out for anyone with a stake in property or a small business.

Negative Gearing And Capital Gains Tax

From 1 July 2027, negative gearing will apply only to new residential builds. The current 50% CGT discount is being replaced with an inflation-adjusted cost base, and a new 30% minimum tax rate on capital gains will apply to individuals, trusts and partnerships.

The detail that matters most for existing investors: your current properties are fully grandfathered. The new rules apply only to residential property purchased after 12 May 2026. If you are weighing up your next move, this is worth a proper conversation with your accountant or financial adviser before settling. If you are still building the picture, my guide on why investors are focusing on rental income in 2026 covers the wider context.

First Home Buyers

The 5% deposit Home Guarantee Scheme continues, meaning eligible buyers can enter the market without paying Lender's Mortgage Insurance. The Budget also commits $2 billion toward housing infrastructure to deliver 65,000 new homes, and extends the ban on foreign investors purchasing existing homes. If a first purchase is on your horizon, the broker-led checklist in why many first home buyers choose to work with a mortgage broker is the natural next step.

Cost-Of-Living Relief

A new $1,000 instant tax deduction for work-related expenses removes the receipt burden for individuals and sole traders. A Working Australians Tax Offset of up to $250 begins on 1 July 2027. Personal income tax rates also drop: the 16% marginal rate falls to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 1 July 2027.

Small Business And Self-Employed

The $20,000 instant asset write-off is now permanent for businesses with turnover up to $10 million. From 1 July 2026, companies turning over up to $1 billion will also be able to carry back tax losses from the previous two years.

Interest Rate News

RBA Lifts Cash Rate To 4.35% — Third Rise This Year

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35% on 5 May, the third consecutive rise for 2026. The Board voted 8-1, a decisive shift from the 5-4 split we saw in March.

Annual CPI rose to 4.6% in March, up from 3.7% in February and the highest reading since September 2023. The RBA's preferred measure, underlying inflation, sits at 3.3% — still above the 2-3% target band.

It is a real income shock for Australia and the world. Australians are poorer because of this shock to oil prices and energy prices and all the other commodity prices that are being impacted.

Michele Bullock, RBA Governor

Bullock attributed the inflation surge to the oil price shock linked to the Middle East conflict and signalled more hikes could be needed. The next decision is on 16 June, and some economists are pencilling in further rises in June and August.

If you have not pressure-tested your home loan against the new rate, now is the time. A quick review covers whether your rate is still competitive, whether the structure (fixed, variable, split) still suits you, and whether features like an offset or redraw are pulling their weight against the rate you are paying.

Property Market

Growth Slows As Capital Cities Diverge

National home values rose 0.3% in April, the slowest pace of growth in more than a year. The pullback was led by Melbourne and Sydney, where values fell 0.6% over the month. Growth in the mid-sized capitals is also losing momentum.

According to Cotality research director Tim Lawless, the slowdown has been building since late last year as affordability and serviceability constraints weigh on demand, with higher rates now compounding the effect.

Regional markets have held up better — up 4.2% over the first four months of 2026, compared with 1.8% across the combined capitals. Even that pace is starting to ease, with regional prices rising 0.9% in April, the slowest monthly gain in nine months.

Home Value Index — April 2026
StateAuctionsClearancePrivate SalesMonthly Change
VIC1,17257%1,350▼ -0.6%
NSW99249%1,339▼ -0.6%
ACT9562%1060.0%
QLD23540%903▲ +1.3%
WA425%477▲ +2.1%
SA14759%309▲ +1.1%
TAS1100%161▲ +0.2%
NT19▲ +1.3%

Monthly Home Values figures as of 30 April 2026. Auction results and clearance rates for the week ending 3 May 2026. Source: Cotality, realestate.com.au.

Where This Leaves You

Between the Budget, rising rates and a two-speed market, the next 60 days are a good window to take stock. If you are an investor sitting on equity, the grandfathering rules mean your existing portfolio is unchanged but the calculus on the next purchase has shifted. If you are upgrading and trying to time a sale, conditions in Sydney and Melbourne look different to conditions in Perth or Brisbane — and a bridging finance conversation may be more relevant than it was six months ago. If you are reviewing your loan, the questions to ask before you commit to a broker are worth a fresh read.

If you would like a clear view of where you stand, book in a strategy session and we will walk through your numbers together.

Source: This article was originally published by FinanceFocus and has been shared with permission. Information is general in nature and does not constitute financial, tax or credit advice. Your individual circumstances should be assessed before making any financial decision.
Lawrence Banh
Your Broker
Lawrence Banh
Founder, Banh & Co. Capital

Lawrence helps Australians make calm, informed property and lending decisions through every market cycle. Banh & Co. Capital is a Melbourne-based mortgage brokerage specialising in first home buyers, refinancers and property investors.

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